Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
. Second, we estimate one-step Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the diffusion indices …. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching … models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …