This paper revisits the yield spread's usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We find that both factors are relevant for...

The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) has recently formally recommended CME Group’s forward-looking Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) term rates (SOFR Term Rates), following the completion of a key change in interdealer trading conventions on July 26, 2021 under the SOFR...

We investigate the synchronization of Eurozone’s government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we combine principal component analysis with random matrix theory. We find that synchronization depends upon yields maturity. Short-term yields are not synchronized. Medium- and...

This paper investigates heterogeneity in residential property yields using rental and sale listings from the largest German internet real estate platform. Equipped with property-level rent-to-price ratios obtained via matching properties for sale and for rent, we show that they strongly co-move...

The term structure of interest rate differentials is derived in a model of a small open economy with a target zone exchange rate regime. The target zone is modeled as a regulated Brownian motion. The interest rate differentials are computed as the solution to a parabolic partial differential...

We investigate the implications of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices of firms for the pricing of credit default swaps (CDS). Our evidence indicates that higher ESG ratings mitigate credit risks of U.S. and European firms from 2007 to 2019. The risk mitigation effect is...

This paper presents empirical models of Mexican government bond (MGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data. The current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on MGB yields, after controlling for inflation and growth in industrial production. John Maynard Keynes claimed that...

We introduce a flexible, time-varying network model to trace the propagation of interest rate surprises across different maturities. First, we develop a novel econometric framework that allows for unknown, potentially asymmetric contemporaneous spillovers across panel units, and establish the...

The cross-section method for estimating credit spreads as proposed in [NOM01] has a drawback when used in applications different than estimating a CVA VaR. Indeed, we show that by optimizing in least-squares on log-spreads, the method tends to approximate the geometric average of observed...

This paper studies the role of mutual fund yield in driving investor flows and performance of bond funds. Using two common measures, the SEC yield and 12-month distribution yield, we find strong evidence that investors tend to chase bond funds with higher yields, even after controlling for total...