Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by adistributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate...

The standard way to summarize the yield curve is to use the first three principal components of the yield curve, resulting in level, slope and curvature factors. Yields, however, are non-stationary. We analyze the first three principal components of yield changes, which correspond to changes in...

If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which then becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot be confident that the unaided market will choose the good equilibrium' over...

Prices of riskfree bonds in any arbitrage-free environment are governed by a pricing kernel: given a kernel, we can compute prices of bonds of any maturity we like. We use observed prices of multi-period bonds to estimate, in a log-linear theoretical setting, the pricing kernel that gave rise to...

We use secondary corporate loan market prices to construct a novel loan market-based credit spread. This measure has additional predictive power across macroeconomic outcomes beyond existing bond credit spreads as well as other commonly used predictors in both the U.S. and Europe. Consistent...

This paper discusses the parallel and efficient computation of macroeconomic models, with emphasis on solving sovereign default models. Our motivation is twofold. First, we aim to streamline complex numerical models in a parallel computa- tion fashion. Second, we want to unleash the power of GPU...

In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short...

We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the...

We propose a shadow rate no-arbitrage DTSM with drifting trends to estimate the natural rate of interest. With the shadow rate reflecting overall financial market condition (Wu and Zhang (2019)), its long run forecast (in real term), defined as our natural rate, provides a useful measure against...

This contribution examines the implications of the "national security provision" in terms of section 18A of the Competition Act 89 of 1998 as inserted by section 14 of the Competition Amendment Act 18 of 2018. The effect of section 18A is that it confers upon the President of the Republic of...