This paper studies the mediating impact of the maturity of public debt in the transmission of monetary policy shocks to economic activity. A longer debt maturity attenuates greatly the effect of monetary policy: going from the average historical duration of US debt to very short term debt...

This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators....

Short articles on the LIBOR scandal looking for a deeper understanding of the crisisAt the end of June 2012, news of a further scandal in the banking industry broke – although, there was widespread knowledge about this problem within the industry. One UK bank, Barclays, had fines levied by the...

We infer the forward-looking Bitcoin risk premium from options contracts. Using data from 2018 to 2020, we show that the expected excess returns for Bitcoin are time-varying and significantly higher than in equities or gold, averaging almost 80% per annum. A temporal analysis of the term...

We develop a dynamic, search-theoretic model of bank deposit and loan markets where relationships are bilateral, the demand for liquid assets is microfounded, and consumers are privately informed about their liquidity needs. As the policy rate rises, the deposit spread widens, and aggregate...

Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging market sovereigns around the outbreak of COVID-19. Using 2014-2019 data, we estimate a two-factor model of global and regional...

We study the link between the volatility of exchange rates and interest rate differentials (IRD), motivated by the importance of currency carry trade activities in exchange rate dynamics. We examine this link by means of an extended stochastic volatility model, for which we detail an efficient...