This paper studies the empirical properties of the term structure of total housing risk in Sweden using a particularly rich dataset of housing transactions. We contrast recent studies by showing that, even after ten years, 75% of the total variation in housing returns will be attributable to the...

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 caused widespread economic uncertainty, prompting government officials to act swiftly to combat potentially severe fallout. On March 23, 2020, the Federal Reserve announced a series of monetary policy measures and established several emergency...

In a precautionary measure as the European debt crisis worsened in 2011, the Bank of England created a contingent liquidity insurance facility, the Extended Collateral Term Repo (ECTR) facility. This facility would swap sterling cash for eligible collateral on a short-term basis and could be...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) activated its Contingent Term Repo Facility (CTRF) from April 2020 to April 2021 in response to liquidity strains in markets that stemmed from economic uncertainty and the COVID-19 pandemic. The facility complemented other BoC liquidity facilities by broadening access to...

We investigate the association between ECB monetary policy and market-perceived short- term and long-term bank risk, using the term structure of default risk captured by bank CDS spreads. During the period 2009-2020, ECB expansionary monetary policy diminished bank default risk in the short...

We develop a flexible nonparametric similarity-based approach to predict the state of the business cycle in different interest rate environments. Our approach provides methodological advantages over parametric logit and probit models and new empirical perspectives on the usefulness of the term...

In this paper we examine the dynamics of European sovereign bond yield spreads focusing on issues related to financial integration and market conditions. The finding of near-unit-root effects highlights the need for careful econometric specification. Thus we formulate sovereign bond yield...

The ultra long run (ULR) discount rates are key inputs for valuing pension funds, life annuities, or firms with long run investments due to low carbon transition. However the corresponding zero-coupon bonds are only actively traded up to a last liquid point (LLP) such as 20 years, say. This...

Karl Marx set profit to zero to obtain some maximum interest rate and called it profit rate. He further argued that interest rate must be lower than profit rate. That is Marx’s interest rate theory. This paper disproves Marx’s profit rate, and hence his interest rate theory. It also...