While simultaneously accounting for the effects of sovereign and corporate bond spreads, we document that emerging market economy (EME) equity returns have a strong predictive power for future output growth and account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations in these countries. Our...

I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury yield curve. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily due to autocorrelation in yield changes rather...

This essay surveys the upcoming 2005-06 term of the Supreme Court, a term that may be as notable for what it says about the future direction of the Supreme Court as it is for specific decisions in any particular cases. This does not mean the term lacks important cases. To the contrary, this...

This paper examines the time-varying conditional correlations between FIRST BITCOIN CAP and ICE BofA Sterling Zero Coupon markets. We apply ten bivariate DECO-GARCH models in order to capture potential contagion effects between the markets for the period 2007-2020. Empirical results reveal...

The long running debate among economic historians over how long it took regional financial markets in the United States to become fully integrated should be of considerable interest to students of monetary unions. This paper reviews the debate, discusses the implications of various hypotheses...

Using high-frequency data from the MTS trading platform, we examine return and volatility spillover effects across different maturities in the European sovereign bond market over tranquil and crisis periods. The longer-term benchmark securities of core countries are the largest net volatility...

This paper analyzes bond convenience yields in a currency union. The intertemporal government budget constraint requires member countries' bond convenience yields and default spreads to adjust in response to shocks to their government surpluses. In the data, adjustments to convenience yields...

This paper extends previous work on the information in the term structure at longer maturities to other countries besides the United states, using a newly constructed data set for 1 to 5 year interest rates from Britain, West Germany and Switzerland. Even with wide differences in inflation...

The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on...

In this PowerPoint presentation we give an overview of yield curves, show how they are modelled and calibrated and give a brief overview of LIBOR reform.Firstly we explain how to calibrate curves to imply forward rates & discount factors. Secondly, we outline the interpolation, optimization and...