This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market’s expected excess return and growth of economic activity are...

This paper investigates relationships of the money market between China and the U.S by using the Nelson-Siegel model to decompose the structure of yield curve into three factors and find out how the structure of the yield curve in the U.S can affect China's economy, for example, I operate the...

This paper contributes to the vast literature on the predictive power of term structure about future inflation, by focusing on an emerging market case. The following important result emerged in our paper: Monetary policy change is an important determinant of the relationship between term...

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rate in six different countries, during the period 1992-2004. We apply Nelson and Siegel model to obtain them with a weekly frequency. Four European Monetary Union countries, Spain, France, Germany and Italy are...

The article identifies principal reasons underlying the movements of yield curve for government debt market in India for the period Jul '97 to Dec '11. The study finds that though statistically Svensson's (SV) (1994) model outperforms Nelson and Siegel's (NS) (1987) model in yield curve...

Unconventional monetary policy tools are based on the belief that there exists a zero-lower bound on interest rates. This paper argues, based on economic theory and the empirical evidence, that this belief is a myth and not a reality. It is shown that a negative default-free spot rate of...