This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New-Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent's forecast rule is optimal (in the sense of minimizing mean squared forecast errors), conditional on a perceived law of motion for inflation and...

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent's forecast rule is optimal, conditional on a perceived law of motion for inflation and observed moments of the inflation time series. The perceived...

We calculate the Hurst exponent H(t) of several time series by dynamical implementation of a recently proposed scaling technique: the detrending moving average (DMA). In order to assess the accuracy of the technique, we calculate the exponent H(t) for artificial series, simulating monofractal...