The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

Introduction. The objects of investigation of this work are micro-level behaviors in stock markets. We aim at better understanding which strategies of market participants drive stock markets. The problem is that micro-level data from real stock markets are largely unobservable. We take an...

We consider the infinite-horizon optimal portfolio liquidation problem for a von Neumann-Morgenstern investor in the liquidity model of Almgren (2003). Using a stochastic control approach, we characterize the value function and the optimal strategy as classical solutions of nonlinear parabolic...

In this paper I consider the problem of optimal linear filtering, smoothing and trend extraction for m-period differences of processes with a unit root. Such processes arise naturally in economics and finance, in the form of rates of change (price inflation, economic growth, financial returns)...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and long-term prior return (24-60 months). The characteristic sorted...

The Halloween effect refers to a calendar anomaly that can be easily exploited and calls for buying the market index in the end of October each year and switching to treasury bills at the end of April the following year. The effect has only been studied on a 'calendar-month' basis and primarily...

The motivation of this paper is 3-fold. Firstly, we apply a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a Psi-Sigma Network (PSN) architecture in a forecasting and trading exercise on the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF exchange rates and explore the utility of Kalman Filter,...