We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other...

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other...

We search for the presence of hysteresis, which we define as aggregate demand shocks that have a permanent impact on real GDP, in the U.S., the Euro Area, and the U.K. Working with cointegrated structural VARs, we find essentially no evidence of such effects. Within a Classical statistical...

This research aims to estimate the impact of short and long-term structural shocks on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as on prices in Bolivia. The methodology used was structural autoregressive vectors and the data used came from the National Institute of Statistics. Results shows that...

This research aims to estimate the impact of short and long-term structural shocks on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as on prices in Bolivia. The methodology used was structural autoregressive vectors and the data used came from the National Institute of Statistics. Results shows that...

We consider the decomposition of shocks to a dynamic process into a persistent and a transitory component. Without additional assumptions (such as zero correlation) the decomposition of shocks into a persistent and transitory component is indeterminate. The assumption that is conventional in the...