A multiplicative relationship, drought magnitude (M)=drought intensity (I) × drought duration or length (L) is used as a basis for predicting the largest expected value of hydrological drought magnitude, E(M <Subscript> T </Subscript>) over a period of T-year (or month). The prediction of E(M <Subscript> T </Subscript>) is carried out in...</subscript></subscript>

This paper develops a posterior simulation method for a dynamic Tobit model. The major obstacle rooted in such a problem lies in high dimensional integrals, induced by dependence among censored observations, in the likelihood function. The primary contribution of this study is to develop a...