We consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account some stylized facts of the business cycle such as asymmetries in the phases. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given. First, we introduce the various threshold...

We consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account some stylized facts of the industrial business cycle such as asymmetries in the phase of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given. First, we introduce the...