Central bank credibility is critical for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The measures of credibility that are based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an alternative measure that allows us to track the evolution...

Central bank credibility is critical for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The measures of credibility that are based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an alternative measure that allows us to track the evolution...

A deep understanding of the drivers of credit risk is valuable for financial institutions as well as for regulators from multiple viewpoints. The systemic component of credit risk drives losses across portfolios and thus poses a threat to financial stability. Traditional approaches consider...

This article aims at evaluating potential growth for France, Germany and the euro area during the period from after the 2007-2008 credit crisis until 2012. Such an assessment plays a central role in the determination of the structural deficit and therefore in the definition of consolidation...

When a certain procedure is applied to extract two component processes from a single observed process, it is necessary to impose a set of restrictions that defines two components. One popular restriction is the assumption that the shocks to the trend and cycle are orthogonal. Another is the...

This paper examines structural changes in the Italian manufacturing sector, focusing on labour productivity in recent decades. To this end it distinguishes between trend and cyclical movements in the data using a multivariate unobserved components model. Changes in the relative importance of...

This paper examines structural changes in the Italian manufacturing sector, focusing on labour productivity in recent decades. To this end it distinguishes between trend and cyclical movements in the data using a multivariate unobserved components model. Changes in the relative importance of...

This paper extends previous empirical research on the determinants of aggregate property crime rates in two dimensions.  First, we examine the effect of inflation on property crime rates.  Then, using a structural time-series approach we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the...