This paper provides rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recoveries for countries showing asymmetric cycle durations. Based on a Schumpeterian framework, we analyze business cycles as sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved...

A single outlier in a regression model can be detected by the effect of its deletion on the residual sum of squares. An equivalent procedure is the simple intervention in which an extra parameter is added for the mean of the observation in question. Similarly, for unobserved components or...

In this paper we model the monthly number of passengers flying with the Spanish airline IBERIA from January 1985 to December 1992 and predict future values of the series up to October 1994. This series is characterized by strong seasonal variations and by having an upward trend which has a...

Time series models are presented for which the seasonal component estimates delivered by linear least squares signal extraction closely approximate those of the standard option of the widely-used Cencus X-11 program. Earlier work is extended by consideration of a broader class of models and by...

Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the...