The use of risk management methodologies on IT projects is very important, but very little is understood about what drives this use. A review of the literature identified a range of potential drivers of this use, with the notion of use itself being resolved into two types: organizational level...

Morris (1996, 1997) introduced preference-based definitions of knowledge of belief in standard state-space structures. This paper extends this preference-based approach to unawareness structures (Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper, 2006, 2008). By defining unawareness and knowledge in terms of...

This paper's field evidence is: (1) in reality a major exchange rate change devastates an economy, i.e. the widespread academic faith that exchange rate changes are either beneficial or harmless is a false faith that contributes to needless world-wide economic havoc; (2) the 1982-85 exchange rate...

We present a comprehensive framework for comparing the merits of alternative portfolio insurance strategies in realistic contexts. Our findings add generality to previous results comparing option based and constant proportionality portfolio insurance strategies (OBPI and CPPI). The optimal OBPI...

In standard models of Bayesian learning agents reduce their uncertainty about an eventÂ’s true probability because their consistent estimator concentrates almost surely around this probabilityÂ’s true value as the number of observations becomes large. This paper takes the empirically...