We introduce a new method to measure resilience, defined as the ability of an individual, household or community to recover after a decline in well-being. Our approach measures resilience as the extent to which outcomes recover, against the benchmark of symmetric mean reversion arising from...

This paper studies the optimal central bank intervention of interest rate problem, where the interest rate process is modelled by an Ornstein—Uhlenbeck (mean-reverting) process with a slowly varying stochastic volatility. The objective of the central bank is to maintain the interest rate close...

While traditional predictive regressions for stock returns using financial ratios are empirically proven to be valuable at long-term horizons, evidence of predictability at few-month horizons is still weak. In this paper, based on the empirical regularity of a typical dynamic of stock returns...

In this paper we study the effect that mean-reverting components in the arithmetic dynamics of electricity spot price have on the price of a call option on a swap. Our model allows for seasonal effects, spikes, and negative values of the price of electricity. We show that for sufficiently large...

We model a risk-averse firm owner who wants to maximize the intertemporal expected utility of firm’s dividends. The optimal dynamic control problem is characterized by two stochastic state variables: the equity value, and profitability (ROA) of the _rm. According to the empirical evidence, we...

This study compares and contrasts the multiple characterizations of mean reversion in financial time series as regards the restrictions they imply. This is accomplished by translating them into statements about an alternative measure, the "Average Crossing Time" or ACT. We argue that the ACT...

This study aims to analyze the effect of change in trading volume on the short-term mean reversion of the stock price in the Korean stock market. Through the variance ratio test, this paper finds that the market shows the mean reversion pattern after 2000, but not before. This study also...

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the "unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t" and its estimator, is made clear...