This study assesses the 'safehavenness' of a number of currencies with a view to providing a better understanding of how capital flows tend to react to sharp increases in global risk aversion during periods of financial crisis. It focuses on how currencies are perceived by dollar-based...

Typically, prediction bands for path-forecasts are constructed pointwise, while inference relates to the whole forecasted path. In general, no closed form analytical solution is available for pathwise bands in finite samples. We consider a direct construction approach based on bootstrapped...

This paper studies the effect of market structure and macroeconomic uncertainty on the transmission of monetary policy. We motivate our analysis with a simple model which predicts that: 1) investment and production in more concentrated sectors are more affected by demand changes and 2) high...

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1-2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and...

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1-2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and...

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the fragility of the US (and other countries') financial system under several respects. In this paper, the properties of a summary index of financial fragility, obtained by combining information conveyed by the "Agency", "Ted" and "BAA-AAA" spreads,...