The 2007 global crisis triggered a severe sovereign debt crisis in Portugal, which led to the need to comply with an Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP) based, among other pillars, on fiscal consolidation. According to our literature review, the economic environment in which the adjustment...

The abundance of oil resources and the dependence of the state budget on crude oil exports have exposed Iran's single-product economy to oil price fluctuations and its consequences. On the other hand, according to the country's financial system and its being bank-centric, one of the sectors that...

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence...

We develop a Bayesian Structural VAR (SVAR) model to study the relationship between different kinds of energy shocks and inflation dynamics in Europe. Specifically, we include in our specification two separate energy markets (oil and natural gas) and two target macroeconomic variables, measuring...

The identification of the effects of climate shocks on economic growth is central to design effective policies aiming at managing the future global climate change challenge. In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on economic growth across different...

In this paper, we test cointegration between GDP and Public consumption of the Republic of North Macedonia, for quarterly data of twenty years' time series (2000Q1-2019Q4). We present results of two methods for cointegration test: first, residual regression test table and second, Engle & Granger...

This paper examines the impact of unconventional monetary policy of ECB measured by its balance sheet expansion on euro area equity market uncertainty and investors risk aversion within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty...

We examine the ability of large-scale vector autoregressions (VARs) to produce accurate macroeconomic (output and inflation) and credit (loans and lending rates) forecasts in Greece, during the latest sovereign debt crisis. We implement recently proposed Bayesian shrinkage techniques and we...

In the present paper we study the determinants of the margins paid by euro-area non-financial corporations (NFCs) for their bank loans on top of the rates they earn for their deposits (bank lending margins). We use panel VAR techniques, in order to test for causality relationships and produce...