We propose a new variational approximation of the joint posterior distribution of the log-volatility in the context of large Bayesian VARs. In contrast to existing approaches that are based on local approximations, the new proposal provides a global approximation that takes into account the...

This paper aims to decompose a large dimensional vector autoregessive (VAR) model into two components, the first one being generated by a small-scale VAR and the second one being a white noise sequence. Hence, a reduced number of common components generates the entire dynamics of the large...

In empirical macroeconomics, proxy structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) have become a prominent path towards detecting monetary policy (MP) shocks. However, in practice, the merits of proxy SVARs depend on the relevance and exogeneity of the instrumental information employed. Our...

We introduce a new class of semiparametric dynamic autoregressive models for the Amihud illiquidity measure, which captures both the long-run trend in the illiquidity series with a nonparametric component and the short-run dynamics with an autoregressive component. We develop a GMM estimator...

The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship that exists between tourism, money supply and construction, on the one hand, and the economic growth in Greece, using a multivariateautoregressive model VAR. The long-term relation based on the Cointegration test results has shown the...

This paper applies a TVP-VAR model to explore dynamic connectedness between West Texas Intermediate crude oil and other US energy prices, stock prices and exchange rate markets during the April 2020 supply shock leading to negative WTI crude oil prices. This period, while coinciding with the...

Calculating risk measures can be extremely time consuming for large portfolios. Monte Carlo and historical value at risk and expected shortfall calculations can require repricing 1,000s of positions 1,000s of times. This makes risk calculations extremely challenging when the pricing functions...

Understanding the impact of economic shocks on exchange-rate volatility is important because it could help mitigate risks and vulnerabilities that affect investment decisions and macroeconomic stability. In this paper, we examine how asymmetric shocks and volatility are transmitted across major...