Business cycles are often regarded as aggregate phenomena. However, against the backdrop of rapid structural transformation in Chinese economy, they are also influenced by cyclical changes in various sectors and the evolution of the economic network structure. From the perspective of production...

This paper compares the renowned GARCH model with a novel one, the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model in terms of forecasting performance. Considering the gap in the literature, this study focuses on the Turkish stock and FX markets. The analysis covers 25 years (1999-2023), of which...

Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world, facing significant challenges to its people, economy, and environment due to climate change. This study examines how climate shocks affect financial stress in European countries, focusing on three key factors: Climate Policy Uncertainty...

A multivariate, non-Bayesian, regression-based, or feasible generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is proposed to estimate time-varying VAR parameter models. Although it has been known that the Kalman-smoothed estimate can be alternatively estimated using GLS for univariate models, we...

This paper examines the propagation of oil price uncertainty shocks to real equity prices using a large-scale Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model of 26 advanced and emerging stock markets. The GVAR framework allows us to capture the transmission of local and global shocks, while...