In this paper we derive supply and demand equations for labour in the UK agricultural sector. Using a cointegrating vector autoregression framework, identifying restrictions from theory are imposed, and the long-run labour supply and demand relationships are estimated. We find a significant...

The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is widely used in the analysis and discussion of macroeconomic policy. It is, however, unobservable so that estimates of the natural rate are necessarily based on a particular theory of unemployment. Hence, measures of the natural rate, whether...

Fluctuations in real GNP have traditionally been viewed as transitory deviations from a deterministic time trend. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments that have led to a new view of output fluctuations and then to provide some additional evidence. Using post-war...

Conventional time series methods have been generally unsuccessful in forecasting interest rates, with fitted ARIMA models being close to random walks. The method proposed here is to forecast the whole of the yield curve, from which forecasts of individual rates may be extracted. The method is...