Value-at-risk (VaR) is an important risk measure now widely used by financial institutions and regulators to quantify market risk and compute regulatory capital charge. The performance of VaR model can be examined by back-testing. Based on back-testing information, this paper develops a Machine...

This paper applies a Qual VAR approach to generate a continuous banking crisis indicator from an underlying latent variable using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Four decades of banking crises are assessed by accounting for the evolutionary nature of precursors, as measured through...

Crude oil is prone to large upward price shocks, creating challenges for personal and corporate budgeting. In this paper, we systematically assess a range of possible shock havens against large oil price shocks. Empirical tests uncover a rich set of assets which act both as hedges and shock...

Bitcoin’s energy hunger has recently triggered a heated debate in academic literature due to its massive energy consumption and carbon footprint. Unfortunately, it is difficult to measure Bitcoin’s actual electricity consumption, and literature on the topic produces inconsistent estimates...

In a world scale economy considering interlinkage and interactions between countries, economic shocks will affect various economies through channels. Meantime, the oil price is one of the most important channels. New studies show that the connection between the oil price and the world economy...

We propose a method to adjust for data outliers in Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), which allows for different outlier magnitudes across variables and rescales the reduced form error terms. We use the method to document several facts about the effect of outliers on estimation and...

As common practice, oil studies in the economic literature are carried out by taking the correct specification of a model as given, and ignoring the problem of estimating overly optimistic confidence sets. This means that model uncertainty is pervasive in the empirical results. In this work I...

This paper discusses the role that stock market volatility plays in the linkages between the U.S. stock and Treasury bond markets through liquidity under different regimes of investor sentiment. The baseline analysis shows the interaction between volatility and illiquidity dynamics coincides...

For a given risk, the well-known classical definition of Value-at-Risk (VaR) does not take into account possible interactions with other observable risks. For this reason, conditional VaRs that capture contagion effects and tail dependence among risks, such as the Co-Value-at-Risk (CoVaR), have...