Understanding the impact of economic shocks on exchange-rate volatility is important because it could help mitigate risks and vulnerabilities that affect investment decisions and macroeconomic stability. In this paper, we examine how asymmetric shocks and volatility are transmitted across major...

This paper assesses whether the impact of uncertainty on the U.S. economy has changed over time. Estimating a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model on U.S. data from 1985Q1 to 2021Q2, we find that uncertainty shocks have larger negative effects on output during the Covid-19...

In this paper, we investigate whether COVID-19 has had an impact on household finances, like household debt repayments. To do so, the paper employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that nests neural networks and uses Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) techniques. We use data information related to...

We study the out-of-sample predictability of the real price of crude oil using forecast combinations constructed from several individual predictors. We find that forecasts of themonthly average price of oil are more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons ranging from 1 to 24 months...

In this study, I examine the effect of different supply and demand shocks in the oil market on the Iranian macroeconomic and fiscal variables. First, oil price shocks are decomposed into Iran’s oil production shocks, the world’s oil production shocks, the world’s general demand shocks, and...

Recently, the soil pollution caused by Cd is becoming a serious concern . Phytoremediation is the popular technology in the remediation of Cd contaminated soil. Salix matsudana var. matsudana f. umbraculifera Rehd. has been characterized as a high cadmium-accumulating and tolerant willow, but...

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing...

This research aims to quantify the effects of fiscal policy on output in Egypt by applying a Structural Vector Autoregressive analysis on quarterly time-series from 2007/8 Q1 to 2019/20 Q4. The research investigates the channels of transmission of fiscal policy by disaggregating the SVAR to...

In the context of latent factor models that are widely used in economics, a common assumption made is one of factor pervasiveness, which implies that all available predictor or informative variables in a dataset, with the possible exception of a negligible number of them, load significantly on...