Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant tools for the empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series. Sometimes the flexibility of VAR models leads to overparameterized models, making accurate estimates of impulse responses and forecasts difficult. This book...

This paper estimates the equilibirum level of the real exchange rate for Indonesia in order to measure the extent of overvaluation of the rupiah at the time of the Asian crisis in 1997. The equilibrium level of the real exchange rate is measured using cointegration approach, unobserved component...

The purpose of this study is to contrast the forecasting performance of two non-linear models, a regime-switching vector autoregressive model (RS-VAR) and a recurrent neural network (RNN), to that of a linear benchmark VAR model. Our specific forecasting experiment is U.K. inflation and we...