The purpose of this paper is to estimate the relationship among a primary set of economic variables, including two types of monetary aggregates: simple sum M2 and credit-card-augmented Divisia inside money services. The importance of that comparison has grown as the use of credit cards in...

The research employs Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical priors to analyze the intricate economic implications of fiscal policy shocks on inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal authorities in the context of South Africa. The study explores data spanning from 1979 to 2022. Contrary...

We study the statistical relationship between the world business cycle and the global temperature cycle. To amplify the signal-to-noise ratio, we estimate a two-state latent dynamic process from the original data using the endogenous regime-switching methodology. Subsequently, we apply a...

The study evaluates the feasibility of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries to form an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) through the analysis of shock correlation within the OCA framework. Employing a structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model proposed by Blanchard and...

This study provides evidence and proof of dynamic return connectedness alongside the revelation that certain macroeconomic factors determine the return connectedness of size-based industries of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The objective of this study is to examine the effect of...

Commonly used priors for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) induce shrinkage on the autoregressive coefficients. Introducing shrinkage on the error covariance matrix is sometimes done but, in the vast majority of cases, without considering the network structure of the shocks and by placing the prior...