The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

Electricity price forecasting has been a topic of significant interest since the deregulation of electricity markets worldwide. The New Zealand electricity market is run primarily on renewable fuels, and so weather metrics have a significant impact on electricity price and volatility. In this...

We study the links between financial uncertainty, economic activity, and both conventional and unconventional monetary policies. To disentangle the effects of conventional policies from unconventional ones, we introduce a new identification method that exploits non-Gaussian characteristics of...

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this framework can be used to estimate shifts in the...

The long and continuing coal-dominated energy structure in China makes it important to investigate the impact of coal price shocks on China’s financial markets. This study identifies whether volatilities in coal market may propagate between sectoral equity markets through the heterogeneous...

This paper advances the application of Bayesian graphical structural vector autoregressive (BGSVAR) models to address the problem of impulse response estimation in VAR-based systems. The BGSVAR is designed as a robust empirical framework for impulse response estimation using information from the...

We propose a statistical identification procedure for recursive structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models that present a nonlinear dependence (at least) at the contemporaneous level. By applying and adapting results from the literature on causal discovery with continuous additive noise...

The Credit Suisse crisis in 2023 generated important variations in the stock market, and a lot of discussions about the potential contagion effects with other systemic banks. We use the Extended Joint Connectedness measure based on Diebold and Yilmaz (2008, 2012) approach to study this effect....

We investigate the international shock propagation of the US quality of political signals (USQPOLS) to developed and emerging economies. We find an immediate rise in the real GDP of the developed economies as a result of a unit shock to USQPOLS. However, the shock effect only becomes significant...

I examine the impact of asymmetry in the productivity jointly with uncertainty shocks on real quantities and asset prices. I find evidence that uncertainty shocks to productivity have a very little to contribute to generating a sizable LRR in consumption growth. Rather than the uncertainty...