This paper studies the performance of hybrid methods combining normal and non-normal GARCH-type filters with extreme value theory (EVT) in predicting VaRs of four major stock indices in Chinese stock market. Based on the out-of-sample VaR forecasts results over the 24 models considered, we find...

It is well known that volatility is time-varying and clustered. However, few studies have explored the information content of volatility clustering and its implications for investors’ risk aversion. This information is particularly important in turbulent periods, such as financial crisis. We...

We demonstrate how a mixture of two SEP3 densities (skewed exponential power distribution of Fernández et al., 1995) can model the conditional forecasting of VaR and CVaR to efficiently cover market risk at regulatory levels of 1% and 2.5%, as well as at the additional 5% level. Our data...

This paper discusses the role that equity market volatility plays in the linkages between the U.S. equity and Treasury bond markets through liquidity under different regimes of investor sentiment. The baseline analysis shows the interaction between volatility and illiquidity dynamics coincides...

We propose a blended approach which combines identification via heteroskedasticity with the widely used methods of sign restrictions, narrative restrictions, and external instruments.Since heteroskedasticity in the reduced form can be exploited to point identify a set of orthogonal shocks, its...

Interest in regional economic issues coupled with advances in administrative data is driving the creation of new regional economic data. Many of these data series could be useful for nowcasting regional economic activity, but they suffer from a short (albeit constantly expanding) time series...

This paper presents a common trend VAR model, which allows us to estimate trend and cyclical components of output, inflation, and interest rate. From a theoretical perspective, we build upon the consumption Euler equation, which implies that there exists a cointegration relation between the...

The improvement of currency internationalization levels can positively impact the credibility of the national currencies in international economic activities, and expand the effective demand and optimize the supply structure for the country’s financial service trade. In this way, a state may...

This paper extends the multivariate index autoregressive model by Reinsel (1983) to the case of cointegrated time series of order (1, 1). In this new modelling, namely the Vector Error-Correction Index Model (VECIM), the first differences of series are driven by some linear combinations of the...

This study aims to explore the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in China from 1992 to 2018 using mixed frequency vector autoregressive model (MF-VAR). The MF-VAR model used in this paper does not go through any filtering procedure, and the variables with different...