Financial institutions are subject to many sources of risk, where risk often represents the degree of uncertainty about future net returns. Credit Risk can result in potential loss due to the inability of a counterparty to meet its obligations and is a function of the credit exposure, the...

The paper examines the short-term macroeconomic impact of remittances using a case study of Nepal, one of the highest remittance-receiving countries in the world as a share of GDP. Despite the massive inflow of remittances during the turn of the century, the quantitative impact of remittances on...

[eLarge Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs) have been a successful tool in the forecasting literature and most of this work has focused on macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we examine the ability of large BVARs to forecast the real price of crude oil using a large dataset with over 100...

This paper shows that the economy can be described by two factors: an inflationary demand factor and a deflationary supply factor. More specifically, our approach combines the use of several filtering techniques to extract business cycle fluctuations and dynamic principal components analysis...

We show that under standard assumptions the elements of the impact matrix of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) are always at least set identified and bounded by the standard deviations of the corresponding reduced form errors. This result facilitates valid Bayesian inference without...

This paper investigates the ability of several generalized Bayesian vector autoregressions to cope with the extreme COVID-19 observations and discusses their impact on prior calibration for inference and forecasting purposes. It shows that the preferred model interprets the pandemic episode as a...

Macroeconomists construct impulse responses using many competing time series models and different statistical paradigms (Bayesian or frequentist). We adapt optimal linear prediction pools to efficiently combine impulse response estimators for the effects of the same economic shock from this vast...

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted structural shocks on the global economic system by raising high economic uncertainty. Policymakers are exploring alternative measures and incentivizing foreign direct investment for the restoration of global economic operations to achieve short- and long-term...

Impulse response functions (IRFs) offer little insight regarding the channels by which a shock propagates through a dynamical system. I formulate the concept of a pass-through impulse response function (PT-IRF), which measures the passage of a structural shock through specific sets of variables...

Recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models often lead to a counterintuitive response of prices (and output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the restriction that economic theory is not violated, while...