This paper investigates conditional variance patterns in daily return series of stock market indices in the G-7 and 6 selected economies of Central and Eastern Europe. For this purpose, various linear and asymmetric GARCH models are employed. The analysis is conducted for Canada, France,...

This paper investigates conditional variance patterns in daily return series of stock market indices in the G-7 and 6 selected economies of Central and Eastern Europe. For this purpose, various linear and asymmetric GARCH models are employed. The analysis is conducted for Canada, France,...

We present a new and general technique for obtaining closed-form expansions for prices of options in the Heston model, in terms of Black-Scholes prices and Black-Scholes Greeks up to arbitrary order. We then apply the technique to solve, in detail, the cases for the second-order and third-order...

This article explores the relationships between several forecasts for the volatility built from multi-scale linear ARCH processes, and linear market models for the forward variance. This shows that the structures of the forecast equations are identical, but with different dependencies on the...

Price jumps are mostly related to investor reactions to unexpected extreme news. We perform an event study of price movements after jumps to analyse if investors' reactions are affected by psychological biases. We employ recent non-parametric methods based on intraday returns to separate large...

Long memory in conditional variance is one of the empirical features of most financial time series. One class of models that was suggested to capture this behavior refers to the so-called Fractionally Integrated GARCH processes (Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen 1996) in which the ideas of...

Volatility forecasting is one of the main issues in the financial econometrics literature. Volatility measures may be derived from statistical models for conditional variance, or from option prices. In recent times, indices have been suggested which summarize the implied volatility of widely...

In this paper, we estimate the term structure of interest rate volatilities. It is well known that volatility is the main input for option and other fixed income derivatives valuation models. However, we find that volatility estimates depend significantly on the model used to estimate the zero...

The motivation for this paper is to investigate the use of alternative novel neural network architectures when applied to the task of forecasting and trading the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate. This is done by benchmarking three different neural network designs representing a Higher Order...