This paper compares several statistical models for daily stock return volatility in terms of sample fit and out-of-sample forecast ability. The focus is on U.S. and Romanian daily stock return data corresponding to the 2002-2010 time interval. We investigate the presence of leverage effects in...

Many developing countries have increased their foreign reserve stocks dramatically in recent years, often motivated by the desire for precautionary self-insurance. One of the negative consequences of large accumulations for these countries is the risk of valuation losses. In this paper we...

A general model is proposed for flexibly estimating the density of a continuous response variable conditional on a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates. The model is a finite mixture of asymmetric student-t densities with covariate dependent mixture weights. The four parameters of the...

We overview different methods of modeling volatility of stock prices and exchange rates, focusing on their ability to reproduce the empirical properties in the corresponding time series. The properties of price fluctuations vary across the time scales of observation. The adequacy of different...

We overview different methods of modeling volatility of stock prices and exchange rates, focusing on their ability to reproduce the empirical properties in the corresponding time series. The properties of price fluctuations vary across the time scales of observation. The adequacy of different...

The paper deals with estimation of both general GARCH as well as asymmetric EGARCH and TGARCH models, used to model the leverage effect of good news and bad news on market volatility. We estimate the models using daily returns of S&P 500 stock index and describe the news impact curves (NICs) for...

The paper deals with estimation of both general GARCH as well as asymmetric EGARCH and TGARCH models, used to model the leverage effect of good news and bad news on market volatility. We estimate the models using daily returns of S&P 500 stock index and describe the news impact curves (NICs) for...

A general model is proposed for flexibly estimating the density of a continuous response variable conditional on a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates. The model is a finite mixture of asymmetric student-t densities with covariate dependent mixture weights. The four parameters of the...

Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management.The recent availability of high-frequency data allows for refined methods in this field.In particular, more precise measures for the daily or lower frequency volatility can be...