Damped trend exponential smoothing has previously been established as an important forecasting method. Here, it is shown to have close links to simple exponential smoothing with a smoothed error tracking signal. A special case of damped trend exponential smoothing emerges from our analysis, one...

Experts often add domain knowledge to model-based forecasts while aiming to reduce forecast errors. Indeed, there is some empirical evidence that expert-adjusted forecasts improve forecast quality. However, surprisingly little is known about what experts actually do. Based on a large and...

Experts often add domain knowledge to model-based forecasts while aiming to reduce forecast errors. Indeed, there is some empirical evidence that expert-adjusted forecasts improve forecast quality. However, surprisingly little is known about what experts actually do. Based on a large and...