Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Das Papier teilt die Geldmenge M3 (ohne Bargeld) nach den wichtigsten Haltern (inländische Unternehmen und private Haushalte) auf und untersucht die Bestimmungsgründe dieser Unteraggregate. Eine solche disaggregierte Betrachtung erscheint insbesondere auch für ein besseres Verständnis der...

Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form...

We examine whether and how democratic procedures can achieve socially desirable public good provision in the presence of profound uncertainty about the benefits of public goods, i.e., when citizens are able to identify the distribution of benefits only if they aggregate their private...

I analyze the matching process in the Spanish labor market from 1994-2005. I use monthly registered unemployment data and refer solely to public employment intermediation. This period reflects an upward movement along a downward sloping Beveridge curve; therefore, major changes in the process...

The paper proposes an innovative approach for the analytical solution of agent-based models. The approach is termed Dynamic Stochastic Generalized Aggregation (DSG-A) and is tested on a macroeconomic model articulated in a job and in a goods markets with a large number of heterogeneous and...

We study the information aggregation properties of unanimous voting rules in the laboratory. In line with theoretical predictions, we find that majority rule with veto power dominates unanimity rule. We also find that the strategic voting model is a fairly good predictor of observed subject...

Two experiments show that violations of expected utility due to ambiguity, found in general decision experiments, also affect belief aggregation. Hence we use modern ambiguity theories to analyze belief aggregation, thus obtaining more refined and empirically more valid results than traditional...

This paper examines how the general equilibrium incidence of an environmental tax depends on the effect of different incomes and preferences of heterogeneous households on aggregate outcomes. We develop a Harberger-type model with general forms of preferences and substitution between capital,...