The comovement among different sectors of the Indian economy is found to be low which suggests an important role for sector-level disturbances vis-à-vis aggregate shocks in explaining economic fluctuations. Accordingly, the paper adopts a multisectoral framework that accounts for aggregate as...

Using daily inflation data from the Billion Prices Project [Cavallo and Rigobon (2016)], we show how temporal aggregation biases estimates of monetary policy transmission. We argue that the information mismatch between private agents and the econometrician —the source of temporal aggregation...

This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the...

This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the...

We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the US economy. Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in the skewness of real variables, is highly correlated with the cross-sectional skewness of firm-level employment growth...

Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....

We study the implications of trade aggregation in an infinite-horizon economy with multiple countries. Specifically, we ask whether there is a role for alternatives to the Armington aggregator in the workhorse open-economy macroeconomics model. We show analytically that the first-order dynamics...

This paper presents an investigation of the disaggregated forecast problem that is central to retail operations profitability as it supports accurate inventory decisions on point of sales: forecasting lower than customer demand results in out-of-stock events and conversely, forecasting higher...

The rate at which workers switch employers without experiencing a spell of unemployment is one of the most important labor market indicators. However, Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions are hard to measure in widely used matched employer-employee datasets such as those available in the US. We...

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...