Increases in German core inflation following the 2007 VAT hike were smaller than expected, leading to speculation about delayed inflationary effects. This paper argues to the contrary that price increases in advance of the VAT hike explain the small increase upon implementation. We find that...

We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domestic output, and as the difference between the two is effectively the current...

This paper investigates the factors that affect inflation in the GCC region by examining the inflationary processes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The paper utilizes a model that accounts for foreign factors affecting inflation, such as trading partners' inflation and exchange rate pass-through...

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within an inflation targeting framework, by incorporating forward-looking behavior of...

This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Sierra Leone using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach to help forecast inflation for operational purposes. Despite data limitations, the paper accurately models inflation in Sierra Leone. As economic theory predicts, domestic...

This Annual Progress Report reviews the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and Economic and Social Plan for 2007 for Mozambique. The report presents the new simplified structure adopted in the Review of the First Half of 2007. In the international context, the evolution of the international...

This annual progress report reviews Burkina Faso’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs). The regional integration dynamics was considered as an action variable that allowed Burkina Faso to better insert itself into the global economy. The major quantitative objectives of the revised...

Increases in core inflation owing to the VAT hike were smaller than expected, initially constituting a puzzle and leading to speculation about delayed increases or competitive pressures. Given Germany’s large size and openness, spillover interactions appear to have increased over time. In...

This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) was developed based on a long participatory process based on an institutional mechanism involving all socioeconomic development actors in the country. The annual review of the PRSP seeks to assess the results achieved in the implementation of the...

The health of the population in Guinea is also one of the determinants of poverty, owing to its impact on the ability of the population to work with vigor. There are large disparities depending on the urban/rural residence and administrative region. In terms of the poverty level of households,...