According to the economic theory of crime, a rise in expected punishment - i.e. the product of probability and severity of punishment - results in a reduction of crime due to deterrence. What appears to be a simple and straightforward hypothesis turns out to be a demanding task for empirical...

Greater economic integration between developing and higher income economies has led to increased 'north-south' business cycle linkages. This study applies a linear transfer function ARIMA approach to analyze regional maquiladora payroll dynamics in a non-border region of Mexico. Statistically...

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate...

Using a recently developed model which allows to separate a few well- established employment effects of product and process innovations, this paper reports new results on the relationship between innovation and employment growth in Germany. The model is tailor-made for analysing firm-level...

We propose a comprehensive methodology to characterize the business cycle comovements across European economies and some industrialized countries, always trying to "leave the data speak". Out of this framework, we propose a novel method to show that there is no "Euro economy" that acts as an...

Empirical trade equations estimated using aggregate data may impose ill- advised coefficient restrictions. Export demand equations are estimated using quarterly data for bilateral trade flows between the United States and Mexico. The sample period is 1981-1994. Right-hand-side variables include...

As exports from regions of developing economies to higher income economies grow, business cycle linkages between these areas also increase. This study applies a transfer function ARIMA methodology to the analysis of maquiladora sector employment in a non-border region of Mexico as a means for...

The links between commodity prices, interst rates, wages, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar with consumer prices is investigated. An ARIMA transfer function methodology is employed. Sample data are from January 1972 to December 1988. Although model diagnsotics are relatively good,...

Greater economic integration between developing and higher income economies has caused increased 'north-south' business cycle linkages. This study applies a linear transfer function ARIMA approach to analyze regional maquiladora payroll dynamics in a non-border region of Mexico. Statistically...

Unlike previous analysis, we consider (i) possible externalities in the use of IT and (ii) IT and human capital interactions. Examining, hypothetically, the statistical consequences of erroneously disregarding (i) and (ii) we shed light on the small or negative growth effects found in early...