To find forecasts that are closest to Greenbook forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, this paper looks for SPF cross-sectional percentile forecasts that are not encompassed by Greenbook forecast under Greenbook's loss preference, which exhibits time-varying asymmetry. To evaluate...

Let (X1; Y1), ..., (Xn; Yn) be i.i.d. rvs and let v(x) be the unknown tau - expectile regression curve of Y conditional on X. An expectile-smoother vn(x) is a localized, nonlinear estimator of v(x). The strong uniform consistency rate is established under general conditions. In many applications...

Let (X1, Y1), ..., (Xn, Yn) be i.i.d. rvs and let v(x) be the unknown T-expectile regression curve of Y conditional on X. An expectile-smoother vn(x) is a localized, nonlinear estimator of v(x). The strong uniform consistency rate is established under general conditions. In many applications it...

A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. It is shown that such time-varying quantiles satisfy the defining...

A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. It is shown that such time-varying quantiles satisfy the defining...