We argue that the current framework for predictive ability testing (e.g., West, 1996) is not necessarily useful for real-time forecast selection, i.e., for assessing which of two competing forecasting methods will perform better in the future. We propose an alternative framework for...

Confidence intervals for impulse responses computed from autoregressive processes are considered. A detailed analysis of the methods in current use shows that they are not very reliable in some cases. In particular, there are theoretical reasons for them to have actual coverage probabilities...

The local asymptotic normality for a class of generalized random coefficient autoregressive processes is established. This property implies the asymptotic optimality of the maximum likelihood estimator and the related test statistics. The model includes standard random coefficient autoregressive...