Search Results - subject:"automatic forecasting"

Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

Białowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - In: Contemporary Economics 6 (2012) 1, pp. 60-69

The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436074

Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework

Livera, Alysha M De - Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, … - 2010

A new automatic forecasting procedure is proposed based on a recent exponential smoothing framework which incorporates … alternative to existing automatic forecasting procedures in modeling single seasonal and non-seasonal time series. In addition, it … existing automatic forecasting procedures. The proposed automatic procedure is further illustrated by applying it to two …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467331

Beyond point forecasting: evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

Kim, Jae H.; Song, Haiyang; Wong, Kevin; … - Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, … - 2008

This paper evaluates the performance of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581119

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data

Białowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - In: Empirica 41 (2014) 1, pp. 53-68

In this paper, we develop a methodology for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators, based on business survey data. We estimate a large set of models, using an autoregressive specification, with regressors selected from business and household survey data. Our methodology is based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990131

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data

Białowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 41 (2014) 1, pp. 53-68

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437231

Dynamics of expert adjustment to model-based forecast

Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Legerstee, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2007

Experts often add domain knowledge to model-based forecasts while aiming to reduce forecast errors. Indeed, there is some empirical evidence that expert-adjusted forecasts improve forecast quality. However, surprisingly little is known about what experts actually do. Based on a large and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504983

Dynamics of expert adjustment to model-based forecast

Franses, Philip Hans; Legerstee, Legerstee, R. - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731709

Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R.

Hyndman, Rob J.; Khandakar, Yeasmin - Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, … - 2007

describe two automatic forecasting algorithms that have been implemented in the forecast package for R. The first is based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149030

Meta heuristic approach for automatic forecasting model selection

Babu, Shoban; Shah, Mitul - In: International journal of information systems and supply … 6 (2013) 2, pp. 1-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010128251

Macroeconomic forecasts in models with Bayesian averaging of classical estimates

Białowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - In: Contemporary economics 6 (2012) 1, pp. 60-69

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767634