Aggregated times series variables can be forecasted in different ways. For example, they may be forecasted on the basis of the aggregate series or forecasts of disaggregated variables may be obtained first and then these forecasts may be aggregated. A number of forecasts are presented and...

This paper focuses on the diagnostic checking of vector ARMA (VARMA) models with multivariate GARCH errors. For a fitted VARMA-GARCH model with Gaussian or Student-t innovations, we derive the asymptotic distributions of autocorrelation matrices of the cross-product vector of standardized...

This paper focuses on the diagnostic checking of vector ARMA (VARMA) models with multivariate GARCH errors. For a fitted VARMA-GARCH model with Gaussian or Student-t innovations, we derive the asymptotic distributions of autocorrelation matrices of the cross-product vector of standardized...

Economic agents using information that is not incorporated in the econometric model is seen as a possible reason for why nonfundamental shocks are important in econometric models. Allowing for nonfundamental shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis by considering moving average...

Economic agents using information that is not incorporated in the econometric model is seen as a possible reason for why nonfundamental shocks are important in econometric models. Allowing for nonfundamental shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis by considering moving average...

The paper „Stationary and Non-stationary Time Series” presents in a theoretical approach, the concept of time series, its characteristics which are: variability, homogeneity, periodicity and interdependence of time series terms, from which result the methods of estimation and analysis of...

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...

This paper focuses on the diagnostic checking of vector ARMA (VARMA) models with multivariate GARCH errors. For a fitted VARMA-GARCH model with Gaussian or Student-t innovations, we derive the asymptotic distributions of autocorrelation matrices of the cross-product vector of standardized...