Uruguay’s near-term outlook is positive, but with risks and policy challenges. Medium-term challenges include bolstering the economy’s resilience to shocks and fostering productivity growth. Inflation is a priority and monetary policy cannot fight inflation alone; concerted efforts...

This paper investigates optimized monetary policy rules in the presence of government intervention to stabilize prices of certain categories of goods and services. The paper estimates a small-scale, structural equilibrium model with a sticky-price sector and a subsidized price sector for a large...

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity....

The Russian Federation economy saw growth of about 4 percent and a current account surplus—the result of favorable harvest, high oil prices, and reduced unemployment and inflation. Implementation of structural reforms initiated by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), managing domestic...

Using a consistent dataset and methodology for all eight member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1994 to 2009, this paper provides evidence of the two major channels for real effects of inflation: inflation uncertainty and relative price variability. In line...

Using survey data of market expectations, we ask which popular exchange rate models appear to be consistent with expectation formation of market forecasters. Exchange rate expectations are found to be correlated with inflation differentials and productivity differentials, indicating that the...

The paper conducts a comparative study of the monetary policy transmission in two economies that run a well-established IT regime, Chile and New Zealand, vis-à-vis two economies operating under relatively newer IT regimes, and which are exposed to a significant degree of dollarization, Peru and...

Israel was mildly affected by the global recession: following a slowdown in 2009, output is projected to grow by some 4 percent in 2010, led by consumption and exports. Robust fundamentals—including sustained pre-crisis fiscal consolidation—and a swift monetary and fiscal policy...

This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the growth momentum in Uruguay has continued into 2011 but a slowdown is under way, led by weaker exports and slower public investment. Uruguay’s economic and financial vulnerabilities are modest, and the government has reduced debt...

We use a calibrated multi-sector DSGE model to analyze the likely impact of oil windfalls on the Ghanaian economy, under alternative fiscal and monetary policy responses. We distinguish between the short-run impact, associated with demand-related pressures, and the medium run impact on...