This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This...

Despite more than half a century of research on forecasting stock market returns, most predictive models perform quite poorly when they are put to the test of actually predicting equity returns. In fact, many authors, including Bossaerts and Hillion (1999), Brennan and Xia (2005), and Welch and...

We evaluate two most popular approaches to implementing financial frictions into DSGE models: the Bernanke et al. (1999) setup, where frictions affect the price of loans, and the Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) model, where they concern the quantity of loans. We take both models to the data and check...

This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This...

In this paper we present a novel Bayesian approach for default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula theory. Balance sheet data are used to asses the firm value and to compute its default probability. The firm pricing function...

This article applies a Bayesian dynamic factor model to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth from a new angle. We estimate the common, country, and idiosyncratic factors that drive the dynamics and co-movement of financial development and economic growth...

This paper identifies and quantifies through a Bayesian Network model (BN) the various factors of Operational Risk (OR) associated with business lines of transnational banks. The BN model is calibrated with data from events that occurred in different lines of business of such banks during...

We investigate the persistence of real exchange rates using Bayesian methods. First, an algorithm for Bayesian estimation of nonlinear threshold models is developed. Unlike standard grid-based estimation, the Bayesian approach fully captures joint parameter uncertainty and uncertainty about...