Empirical analysis of individual response behavior is sometimes limited due to the lack of explanatory variables at the individual level. In this paper we put forward a new approach to estimate the effects of covariates on individual response, where the covariates are unknown at the individual...

This paper examines the relative importance of the structural and the persistence approach to unemployment. We set out a standard imperfect competition model that decomposes observed unemployment into a structural and a persistent cyclical component. The natural rate of unemployment is treated...

We will assume a chaotic (mixing) reality, can observe a substantially aggregated state vector only and want to predict one or more of its elements using a stochastic model. However, chaotic dynamics can be predicted in a short term only, while in the long term an ergodic distribution is the...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty...

The article discusses the views of statistics professors Andrew Gelman and Christian P. Robert about the intemperate anti-Bayesian statement appeared on the book of probability theory by mathematician William Feller. It notes that they explore Feller's words along with similar remarks by others...

We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on time-series forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We...

A recurring puzzle to many academics and some policymakers is why impact evaluations, which have become something of a cottage industry in the development field, have so little impact on actual policymaking. In this paper, I study the impact of impact evaluations. I show, in a simple Bayesian...