Item Response Theory (IRT) is a psychometric theory widely used in educational assessment and cognitive psychology to analyse data emerged from answers given to items contained in exams, questionnaires, etc. Standard IRT, however, is based on models which assume that items behave equally to all...

Micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models appear to be particularly suited for evaluating the consequences of alternative macroeconomic policies. Recently, increasing efforts have been undertaken by policymakers to use these models for forecasting, although this proved...

In this paper, we show a mathematical construction of Beck–Cohen superstatistics in the Bayesian point of view with the help of the two representations of a gamma function. Furthermore, it is shown how some results for superstatistics are related to each other.

In this paper we examine which macroeconomic and financial variables have most predictive ability for the federal funds target rate decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We conduct the analysis for the 157 FOMC decisions during the period January 1990–June 2008, using...

A Bayesian approach is presented in order to model long tail loss reserving data using the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) with dynamic mean functions and mixture model representation. The proposed GB2 distribution provides a flexible probability density function, which...

Recognizing that initial public offerings (IPOs) represent the debut of private firms on the public stage, this study investigates how pre-IPO customer and competitor orientations (CCOs) affect IPO outcomes. Building on information economics, we propose that CCOs influence investors' sentiments...

We propose a fully Bayesian inference for semiparametric joint mean and variance models on the basis of B-spline approximations of nonparametric components. An efficient MCMC method which combines Gibbs sampler and Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is suggested for the inference, and the...

It has often been suggested that Bayesian statistics is more congenial to the informational needs of policy makers than the standard frequentist methods. In order to illustrate this claim, we use both a Bayesian and a frequentist approach for revisiting a recommendation by the Dutch National...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models use modern macroeconomic theory to explain and predict comovements of aggregate time series over the business cycle and to perform policy analysis. We explain how to use DSGE models for all three purposes – forecasting, story-telling, and...