This undergraduate class serves as an introduction to probability and statistics, with emphasis on engineering applications. The first segment discusses events and their probability, Bayes' Theorem, discrete and continuous random variables and vectors, univariate and multivariate distributions,...

1- To obtain a set of values of health states of the EQ-5D based on self-related health VAS using linear and non- linear models Bayesian techniques. 2 - To analyse "logical consistency" in different models and to derive a model free from logical inconsistencies. 3 - To analyse and compare...

Consensus estimates put the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) at about four years (Rogoff, 1996). However, conventional least squares estimates of half-lives are biased downward. Accordingly, as a preferred measure of the persistence of real exchange rate shocks, this...

This paper investigates the uncertainty in variance and covariance of asset returns. It is commonly believed that these second moments can be estimated very accurately. However, time varying volatility and nonnormality of asset returns can lead to imprecise variance estimates. Using CRSP value...

This paper investigates the uncertainty in variance and covariance of asset returns. It is commonly believed that these second moments can be estimated very accurately. However, time varying volatility and nonnormality of asset returns can lead to imprecise variance estimates. Using CRSP value...

This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, consumption, investment, nominal...

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditional Wald tests will distort the likelihood that the model is true. Using OECD data...

This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...