This paper presents a case study of applying a Bayesian approach to forecast demand and subsequently determine the appropriate parameter S of an (S-1,S) inventory system for controlling spare parts of electronic equipment. First, the problem and the current policy are described. Then, the basic...

Estimation of the reduced rank regression model requires restrictions be imposed upon the model. Two forms of restrictions are commonly used. Earlier Bayesian work relied on the triangular method of identification which imposes an a priori ordering on the variables in the system, however,...

This paper develops a consumption-based asset pricing model in which attitudes towards risk are contingent upon the state of the world. For a low (high) level of consumption relative to a subjective metric, counter-cyclical (pro-cyclical) risk aversion implies that consumption shocks generate...

Log-periodic precursors have been identified before most and perhaps all financial crashes of the Twentieth Century, but efforts to statistically validate the leading model of log-periodicity, the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model, have generally failed. The main feature of this model is that...

We develop a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting a high dimensional system of ordinal or count outcome equations, illustrating its use by modeling the multiple site recreation demands of individual agents to a set of twenty-nine Iowa lakes. The model flexibly adjusts to match observed...

A physician chooses not only the supply of medical treatment, contingent on the result of a diagnostic test, but also the quality of his service. Two sources of uncertainty are introduced. One source arises as, based on the patient's "apparent" symptoms, only a priori estimates of the likelihood...

We propose a method to incorporate information from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models into Dynamic Factor Analysis. The method combines a procedure previously applied for Bayesian Vector Autoregressions and a Gibbs Sampling approach for Dynamic Factor Models. The factors in...