We develop a DSGE model in which the policy rate signals the central bank.s view about macroeconomic developments to incompletely informed price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set including the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price...

There is a large body of literature stressing the importance of developing financial markets, including stock markets, to enhance countries' growth. I argue that the relationship between stock markets and growth is exaggerated and that the simple act of opening a formal stock market is not a...

Using a survey conduct with 240 Economics students of the University of Brasília in August, 2011, this paper explores the determinants of the academic outcome, measured as the Gross Point Average of the University. The econometric method used to estimate is Ordinary Least Squares with Bayesian...

Dramatic changes in macroeconomic time series volatility pose a challenge to contemporary vector autoregressive (VAR) forecasting models. Traditionally, the conditional volatility of such models had been assumed constant over time or allowed for breaks across long time periods. More recent work,...

Often daily prices on different markets are not all observable. The question is whether we should exclude from modelling the days with prices not available on all markets (thus loosing some information and implicitly modifying the time axis) or somehow complete the missing (non-existing) prices....

In this paper we use Bayes estimates of a multinomial probit model with fully flexible substitution patterns to forecast consumer response to ultra-low-emission vehicles. In this empirical application of the probit Gibbs sampler, we use stated-preference data on vehicle choice from a...

To estimate how monetary policy works in small open economies, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates the basic features of these economies. We conclude that the monetary policy in a group of small open economies (including Australia, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and...

This paper studies oil market and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions. It introduces a new indicator for oil demand, and uniquely, performs a sign restriction set-up with a penalty function approach in an oil market vector autoregression. The...

We investigate the predictive content of credit and government interest spreads with respect to the Italian GDP growth. Our analysis with Dynamic Model Averaging identifies when interest spreads were more useful predictors of economic activity: these periods are not limited to the Great...