The hypothesis that asset returns are normally distributed has been widely rejected. The literature has shown that empirical asset returns are highly skewed and leptokurtic. The affine jump-diffusion (AJD) model improves upon the normal specification by adding a jump component to the price...

To estimate how monetary policy works in small open economies, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates the basic features of these economies. We conclude that the monetary policy in a group of small open economies (including Australia, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and...

This study re-evaluates the monetary approach for the Canada/U.S. exchange rate and shows that its basic structure can be verified although the coefficients are not consistently in line with theory. Our findings also indicate that exchange rate adjustment is subject to regime shifts.

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model...

We propose a novel Bayesian model combination approach where the combination weights depend on the past forecasting performance of the individual models entering the combina- tion through a utility-based objective function. We use this approach in the context of stock return predictability and...