Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let $Z_n$ be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of $Z_n$. We call this the maximum...

We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modelled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...

As an emerging economy, Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit countries by the crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the...

Gertler and Karadi combined financial intermediation and credit policy in a DSGE framework. We estimate their model with UK data using Bayesian techniques. To validate the fit, we evaluate the model’s empirical properties. Then we analyse the transmission mechanism of the shocks, set to...

We evaluate implications of inflation targeting versus fixed exchange rate regime for the UK, Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, i.e. seven EU non-euro area countries. To this end, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model and simulate a model under estimated...

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the...

This note discusses whether the inflation process in Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - countries that after the launch of the euro experienced national inflation rates above the weighted average of the EMU- has different time series properties from the EMU average and explains the possible...

Which labor market specification is better able to describe inflation dynamics, a widely-used sticky wage model or a recently-investigated labor market search model? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate these two models with Japan’s data. This paper shows that the labor market...

A Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approach is introduced for posterior simulation in the Instrumental Variables (IV) model with one possibly endogenous regressor, multiple instruments and Gaussian errors under a flat prior. This DMC method can also be applied in an IV model (with one or multiple...

We develop a two-sector DSGE model with financial intermediation to investigate the role of news as a driving force of the business cycle. We find that news about future capital quality is a significant source of aggregate fluctuations, accounting for around 37% in output variation in cyclical...