Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An...

In this paper, we apply a Markov mixture model to capturing complex dynamics in the cross section distribution of per capita income across countries and examining the convergence hypothesis in economic growth. A Markov mixture model is estimated by a Bayesian procedure via the Gibbs sampler....

An investor with the ability to assess the prospective return and risk structure of the global capital markets can construct portfolios that, over time, will not only outperform actively or passively managed domestic asset portfolios but will also outperform passively managed global portfolios....

The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is subject to considerable random error, but important prior information exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the statistical estimation of...

Perfect aggregation in Bayesian system reliability analysis has been shown to be extremely unlikely. In other words, aggregation error is almost inevitable. Consequently, analysts have to deal with the following dilemma: on one hand, an aggregate analysis (i.e., an analysis at the system level),...

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, 2009.