We consider the following ’truth serum’ mechanism problem: Two players observe signals drawn from a common prior on n x m. They are risk neutral, care only about mechanism payoffs, and will not provide information without incentives. A counterexample shows that one cannot construct a robust...

Individuals' judgement of probabilities—the likelihood of different events to occur, or the attribution of likely causes to what has occurred—is plagued by numerous biases and errors. This note focuses on Bayesian updating and the base rate neglect, and also provides a brief overview of...